NOTE: Images and tables display better in the PDF version.
1 BetaminicSys results +40.17 points (-20 on 1 point stakes) -338 GBP on my bot set
The BetaminicSys account on TippingSports set of 9 strategies had a losing month with -40.17 points going from 372.95 on July 18th to 332.78 today on August 22nd. In August so far it has had a 31.15% win rate with 19 of 61 bets winning and has an ROI of -19.45%.
For my Bf Bot Manager automated bot set, it is now down to 186 GBP, which is a -338 GBP drop since last month’s July 18th newsletter.
As I said previously, I have been experimenting a lot with my own BfBM bot sets recently and I am feeling more confident with the idea of increasing stakes when win rates are below the strategy average and returning them to a normal level when the win rates are above the strategy average.
When I paste those win rates next to my bots, I see that all of them are below the long term win rate.
I think it is important with these big data betting strategies to remember we are following a trend. The trend does not predict winners, it just find value patterns so that if the trend continues it will make profit. So when the win rate is below the 10 year average, then it shows there is a negative variance at the moment where it dips under the long term win rate average, and it can be expected that wins will come to return to that trend level. I think there is often a danger of giving up when a strategy seems to be losing, but is in fact just going though a low win rate. If we then start following the current top strategies on the charts, then it is likely we may follow a strategy that has just had positive variance to propel it to the top of the rankings, so when a strategy is picked, we need to keep an eye on the win rate we are experiencing and the long term win rate. For example, Contend UD makes 14.59% yields on a 39% win rate from 3,616 bets, so the current 28% win rate from just 47 bets is a simple short term dip of results. This is part of the logic that makes me want to increase stakes when the short term win rate is significantly below the long term average.
Base on this I am going to increase stakes on all of them to 40 GBP and to further increase stakes to 60 GBP for A03 (WR-11%), A04(WR-8%), A06(-11%), A07(-8%), A08(-7%), A09(-7%) which all have win rates below the long term rate by -7% to-11%. Strategies with -1% to 5% under the average win rates I will keep at 40 GBP. When they get back to their trend I will put them back to 20 GBP. It is my expectation that the longer I follow these strategies, the more likely it is that they will return to win rates closer to the long term average.
2 System Monthly Results July 2022 – July 2023
-328 GBP change on my bank over the last month, leaving a 28 GBP overall profit including costs since June 2023. Not great, but I can see why the results are this way based on the short term win rates.
An idea that comes up as I write this newsletter is “What if I follow strategies that are in profit in the Since Shared period, but their win rate is below their All Results 10-year win rate %.” Since I expect those to be due a rebalancing positive run to return to trend. But in theory if the win rate is below the average, it is likely to not be in profit. Or possibly have an ROI that appears low in the Snice Shared period. I usually avoid strategies that have ROI under 5%, but maybe this is a mistake. A eureka moment? This is why I write these newsletters. It makes me rethink and analyse my method each month.
Tom Whitaker following own Original Bot System triggered by Betaminic strategies: Monthly Results July 2022-May 2023
Tom Whitaker following BetaminicSys TippingSports account strategies on Level Stakes: Monthly results May 17th 2023 ~August 22nd 2023
2.1 Betaminic Public Strategies Snapshot – 686 public strategies data captured and put into an excel file
Based on that previous thought about win rates, I made snapshot of all current public strategies and put them into an excel file for easy filtering and manipulation.
686 public strategies
240 of those strategies are in profit in their Since Shared period
199 of those strategies have 200 or more bets in their Since Shared period.
Unfortunately, the win rate is not displayed on the main page, but only found by clicking individually on each strategy for Since Shared and All Results.
So I have to manually go through each strategy to add that data.
I will start from the strategies with the most Since Shared bets and work my way down the list until I get about 5 strategies that are in profit but their Since Shared win rate is below the All Period win rate, if that even exists. I will also note strategies that have win rates that are close to their long term trend win rate, which would suggest they are not due a negative correction.
(2 hours later)
4 of the 199 strategies have Since Shared win rates higher than their All Results win rate.
16 of the 199 strategies have the same Since Shared win rates as their All Results win rate.
179 of the 199 strategies have Since Shared win rates lower than their All Results win rate. This was quite surprising as I thought there would not be so many.
How can I use this win rate difference to improve my strategy selection?
I would say that if the Since Shared win rate is the same or only slightly lower than the All Results win rate BUT its yield is significantly lower, then that strategy should not be used. The reasoning is that even though the win rate has remained nearly constant, the ROI has significantly dropped. This may mean the strategy results were a result of data mining and had not found areal trend.If a strategy’s Since Shared win rate is much lower than its All Results win rate but it is still making a good ROI then the strategy should be followed. The reasoning is that the strategy has found a trend that finds value selections and can withstand a negative variance from a lower win rate and still make a profit.If a strategy’s Since Shared and All Results win rate is similar and the ROI is similar, then the strategy can be followed since it indicates a consistent trend.If the Since Shared win rate is the higher than the All Results win rate and its yield is significantly lower, then that strategy should definitely not be used. The reasoning is that the profits have come from positive variance of a more wins than usual. This may mean the strategy results were a result of data mining and had not found areal trend.
The above image is only a few of the 199 strategies.
You can see in the full list in the excel file of the snapshot that quite a few of the top performing strategies have the features of “2” above where its Since Shared win rate is lower, but it still produces a decent ROI. I was surprised to see that none of these strategies were the results of positive variance from a higher win rate than the All Results win rate. I had hypothesized that was why they were high in the rankings, but maybe the Betaminic ratings have already taken this into account.
From this I am going to create my own set of strategies “Win Rate 7” that I think are due some better results from their poor win rate compared to their long term trend, even though they are still making profit at that lower win rate.
Golden 6.6 Draws are in late (by Maxi) Ver2 for All 111 leagues (Updated 2021-11-17) Draw
Back the Underdog Rebooted Home Win
best over teams Over 2.5 Goals
draw 15 Draw
homw win good Underdog
HomeWin/2.00-2.49 Home Win
The rocket strategy (Updated 2021-11-07) Home Win
I will start with 20 GBP on each pick with level stakes.
For the draws, I am also going to link them up to an add-on draw bot set that has been doing well for my own private draw bet system.
For the Betaminic draw picks I will bet:
20 GBP on the current odds
10 GBP on the opposite odds
10 GBP in-play on the current odds if a goal is scored
10 GBP in-play on the opposite odds if a goal is scored
This will include the 2 BetaminicSys draw picks and the 2 new Win-Rate-7 draw picks.
I include this bot set for anyone interested in trying it out, too. (At your own risk of course!)
3 My Individual Strategy Results Update
4 System Changes – Some strategies changed stakes
I have changes the stakes on some strategies based on the short term win rate versus the long term win rate.
1 Winless Home v Undefeated Away Last 3 All 111 of 111 leagues (Based on Home King by AugustinVidic) 40 GBP stakes
2 Colossus 06 Scoring Away Overs 40 GBP stakes
3 Contend UD 40 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
4 Home king 40 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
5 Away weak favourite 41 of 111 leagues 4%+ yields 20 GBP stakes change to 40 GBP stakes
6 e2 40 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
7 Funger Over 2,5 – 1 / Funger Overs BfBM 40 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
8 Emapte Equipos Igualados 20 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
9 Draw top 20 GBP stakes change to 60 GBP stakes
“Win Rate 7” new set added
Golden 6.6 Draws are in late (by Maxi) Ver2 for All 111 leagues (Updated 2021-11-17) Draw 20 GBP stakes
Back the Underdog Rebooted Home Win 20 GBP stakes
best over teams Over 2.5 Goals 20 GBP stakes
draw 15 Draw 20 GBP stakes
homw win good Underdog 20 GBP stakes
HomeWin/2.00-2.49 Home Win 20 GBP stakes
The rocket strategy (Updated 2021-11-07) Home Win 20 GBP stakes
Extra draw bets on draw picks:
10 GBP on the opposite odds
10 GBP in-play on the current odds if a goal is scored
10 GBP in-play on the opposite odds if a goal is scored
4.1 BSG Draw System – My private system and how it has changed how I look at win rates
I often try to create my systems with the Bf Bot Manager and leave test bots running. I have not had much success with standalone “autobots” that run by themselves, but in this one case I left some bots running that were making profit but with very high volatility and drawdowns (-84) and noticed that no matter how bad short term results got, it would always come back up to the long term strategy win rate of 33%. Since the strategy has had a high volume of bets, over 6,000 since November 2022, I was able to see it again and again seem to die and then come back to life. And each time it was in a big loss, it was due to its win rate being under the long term win rate. It could have negative runs that took 300 bets to come back to the 33% win rate, but every time it did indeed comeback. And I could see this happen in real time because there were so many picks. This made me think that I had been giving up too early on Betaminic strategies that had looked good when I chose them, but were on losing runs that seems to last months, but actually were less than 100 bets in those months. With my draw system, I could see much easier that with big data betting even 100 bets is maybe not even long enough to give a strategy a chance to come back to its trend win rates and make profit if it is on a bad run. From my current BetaminicSys strategies the Away weak favourite strategy has 58 bets, but none of them are even near 100 bets. So if a strategy is losing, then I need to check its win rates compared to the long term trend, and also to give it a chance to have over 100 bets and get back near to its long term win rate. This change in my thinking has come around from watching my own strategy come back from the dead every time. So, on the one hand I am really happy to have a betting system of my own that has worked over 6,000 bets, but on the other hand it has a large potential drawdown of -84 and losing runs that see it in the red for 200-300 bets on bad runs. So it needs a lot of patience to let it work. And I want to try and bring my new patience also over to my Betaminic strategies that are based on 1,000s of bets worth of data, too.
If you are interested in my draw system, then it is available to follow via TippingSports for 30 GBP per month, but I recommend following it using the Bf Bot Manager and the bot set that I supply for it.
Overview
The BSG Draw system is based on tips generated by a base strategy, and then 3 other extra bets can be placed on those tips. It was developed entirely with the Bf Bot Manager automated betting software and gets its trigger data from Betfair markets.
It was in testing and development for 8 months since November 2022. It was released to the public in July 2023.
https://www.tippingsports.com/en/profile/8801
The base strategy has had over 6,000 real bets placed during that time, so I am very confident with this system.
Bet 1: 10 GBP on the current draw odds
Bet 2: 10 GBP on the opposite odds
Bet 3: 10 GBP in-play on the current odds if a goal is scored
Bet 4: 10 GBP in-play on the opposite odds if a goal is scored
Bet 1 has 3% ROI after 6,099 bets since October 28th 2022. Average 680 bets per month. (av. 20 points profit p/m)
Bet 2 has 8.5% ROI after 1,878 bets since October 29th 2022. Average 200 bets per month. (av. 17 points profit p/m)
Bet 3 has 15% ROI after 366 bets since June 16th2023. Average 100 bets per month. (av. 15 points profit p/m)
Bet 4 has 36% ROI after 176 bets since June 16th 2023. Average 50 bets per month. (av. 18 points profit p/m)
On 10 GBP stakes, that is aiming for 700 GBP per month.
BUT on a bad run the base strategy could go to -830 GBP, so please have a working betting bank with capital of 2,000 ready if you use it.
Original Test Bots current data (2023-8-22 data)
These are all 1 GBP stake bets.
10 GBP Stakes Bot Results (2023-8-22 data)
A1 Bot Results – The Staking Machine Analysis Data of 1,320 bets (all previous A1 bet data was not retrievable)
B2 Bot Results – The Staking Machine Analysis Data of 4,525 bets (all B2 bet data was not retrievable)
Bot set to use with this TippingSports account
(Results 2023-6-28 to 2023-8-22 screenshot)
Try my bot set with it. I am very confident about it. It is based on over 6,000 bets of historical data from real bets made with the Bf Bot Manager on Betfair, not just back testing historical data.
Each of the bots is set to 10 GBP level stakes.
The A1 bot places a bet on the opposite price. So it will have many bets unmatched and lapsed, but it will have a higher ROI, currently 8.5%.
The B2 bot places a bet on the current price. So it will place all bets. It has more volume but a lower ROI of around 3%.
The B3 bot places an extra bot in play at the opposite odds +4 ticks if a goal is scored. This will have much fewer bets but a higher ROI, currently around 15%.
The B4 bot places an extra bot in play at the current odds if a goal is scored. This will have much fewer bets but a higher ROI, currently around 36%.
The B2 bot has a drawdown of -84 since Nov 2022. So only bet 1 point level stakes and don’t increase stakes until it has doubled the starting bank. For 10 GBP level stakes it is using a 1,000 BP bank, so if its worse run repeats it would be -840 GBP at that point, but based on the historical data it is highly likely it can recover for that on level stakes. It makes consistent money each month, but if you don’t like the huge drawdown risk, then reduce the stake size for the B2 bot.
Staking Size and Bank Size
My recommended bot set that I sent uses:
A1 10 GBP
B2 10 GBP
B3 10 GBP
B4 10 GBP
This is risking a 2,000 GBP bank. 1,000 for the B2 bot and 1,000 for the A1, B3 and B4 bots. The bank could go as low as -84%, but according to the historical data, on level stakes, it is likely to recover even from that. But it must be on level stakes, not percentage of bank stakes.
These tips cost 100 GBP per month, but my referrals on this newsletter list can get a 70% discount and try it for 30 GBP per month. Just let me know you are my referral when asking to subscribe. This set needs the Bf Bot Manager to run the bots, so you need a Betfair account, too.
5 Current Betting System Setup Summary for manual and automated betting
Start with a 1,000 GBP bank.
I am betting 2, 4 or 6 points per bet depending on if my strategy results are under or over the original strategy’s long term win rate, so that is 20, 40 or 60 GBP level stakes per bet.
I ignore the minimum odds.
I ask for the currently available price.
I bet on all picks, including duplicate picks. So if 2 strategies pick the same selection, I will bet twice on it. (This is similar to the Betamin Builder aggregator results.)
I bet 5 minutes before kick-off.
(For automated betting, use the renamed Funger Overs BfBM to avoid name format problems in the software.)
Extra draw bets on draw picks:
10 GBP on the opposite odds
10 GBP in-play on the current odds if a goal is scored
10 GBP in-play on the opposite odds if a goal is scored
6 Automated Betting Bots – My full current Bf Bot Manager bot file sent as .gz
I attach all the bot sets I am using this month with Betaminic strategies and my own BSG draw system bots.
You can view the bot settings I use and edit it to use it as you wish or leave it as it is and just switch on the bots you want.
2023-8-22 Draw bots, BetaminicSys, WR7, BSG bots.gz
If you want to take the easiest automated option, you can follow the BetaminicSys account on TippingSports with their Automated Betting Service.
Comments and New Set of 5Strategies
From feedback about this newsletter I have added another a new bot set. You can read and comment about that here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/comments/15ymwpw/draw_empate/
Support
If you have questions about any of these services, or if you want me to make any demonstration videos of how to do or use something, also please let me know.
Best of luck!
Tom
Useful Links:
1 My Betting Advice Site: www.bettingsystemsguide.com
2 Betaminic big data betting strategies: http://www.betaminic.com/?ref=TomW (Can be automated)
3 Reddit Betaminic Community: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutomatedBettingBots/
4 Betaminic’s winning tipping account BetaminicSys on www.tippingsports.com (Can automated with a Betfair account)
5 Betaminic’s winning tipping account BETAMINIC1 on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
6 My BSG Draw System account bsgDrawSystem on www.tippingsports.com (Can automate with a Betfair account, ask me for my bsgDrawSystem bot set)
7 My BSG Draw System account TomW on www.smartbet.io (Can automate with a PS3838 account)
Pro Betting Tools
1 Bf Bot Manager automated betting software for Betfair
2 Smartbet.io automated betting software for PS3838/Pinnacle (+50% first deposit bonus with “TomW” code)
3 The Staking Machine staking analysis software
4 Betting Agents: : AsianConnect and BetInAsia Access a PS3838 account, online sportsbook & exchange aggregator, and 3% commission white-label version of Betfair with no Premium Charge via a betting agent. AsianConnect (via VPN for UK/AUS residents) or BetInAsia. See my site for a list of which site accepts/restricts which country. Only USA, Aruba, Singapore, and The Philippines are restricted by both. So one of them will probably work for you.
5 VPN services: TunnelBear offer a free VPN with no time limit (2GB per month limit). Paid VPNs are available with more bandwidth. Useful for accessing AsianConnect.
6 VPS: I use SimplyHosting for my VPS that hosts my Bf Bot Manager software.
7 TippingSports for 3rd party verified tipsters that can be easily automated with a Betfair account.
Special Offers (Deposit Bonuses, Cashback, etc.)
1 25% Deposit bonus up to 500 EUR for new AsianConnect signups through this link https://www.asianconnect88.com/promotion/?pk_kwd=vBU3QD4J1R
2 50% Deposit bonus up to 25 EUR for Smartbet.io, when you make your FIRST deposit, tell them “I would like the TomW 50% deposit bonus.” in the deposit chat tab.
Affiliate Link Disclaimer: I may receive commission for purchases made via my affiliate links. I have used all these services myself and I do not recommend anything that I have not used myself. I can offer support and answer your questions about these services because of this experience. If you do decide to use any of these services, then clicking through my links is an easy way to say thanks for me introducing you to it.
